November 16, 2008

Speaker's Race : My money is on Merritt

PhotobucketPhillip over at BOR (here, here and here) has been doing a good job keeping up with the Speaker's race and the reality is that people, even more than after the 2006 cycle, are paying attention to what happens. Gardner Selby had this over at The Statesman on the race and how Democrats could fuck it up, which is entirely possible. However, there was a funny bit from the article...

Craddick hasn't declared victory. But a consultant to the committee that backed Republican House incumbents in the elections calls the race over. Dave Carney said of Craddick: "I don't think there's any doubt he survives."

Carney noted what most at the Capitol know: If a challenger had the votes to take Craddick, he or she would have held an "I'm King" press conference.

...

Carney, though, plays down anti-Craddick sentiment as "driven by guys sitting around in their underwear" writing political blogs.

Now, before you get all wound up, you should really ignore the unmitigated failure that is Dave Carney. Oh, and Dave, I don't sit around in my underwear. Sorry to bust that little fantasy for you but you'll just have to find something else to think about when you jerk off.

Here's how this plays out... there are three serious R (Craddick, Keffer and Merritt) candidates. Everyone else is a waste of time. As for the D's, unless Linda Fatass loses the recount, there's a very slim chance that there will be a Democratic Speaker. Even if it were possible, Hochberg would likely be the only one they could settle on. In this scenario, the D's can get enough R's to replace the Craddick D's.

For now, let's concentrate on the R's... Craddick is obviously a non-starter but he'll probably pull 35-45 votes, as much as 55 with certain Democrats like Turner and Edwards who ostensibly support Turner but will likely shift to their old buddy Craddick. Which makes him the big shit right now. Any other challenger is going to have to pull together a coalition of the R's and the D's to make this work.

I don't think Hochberg can hold the R's. Which means this is one of those shitty times when if progress is to be made, it's going to have to be Democrats who give in. And their choice is Merritt or Keffer. There's already a rumor that the 20/20 folks are supporting Keffer. There's also a rumor that's a lie. Personally, I'm inclined to believe the latter since Keffer really isn't much better than Craddick. And those folks know it.

Which leaves Merritt in the enviable position of being less of a son of a bitch than the others. And once everyone on the anti-Craddick side gets that they have to get to 60, at least, there's going to be a come to Jesus and I have a feeling Merritt's going to walk out with the votes.

Posted by mcblogger at November 16, 2008 04:25 PM

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