April 03, 2008

Here's where you're wrong

The primaries this year threw a lot of people off, mostly because it was a much more significant event than anyone realized it would be. Everyone expected record turnout, but no one thought it would be as large as it was. I've waited a month for someone to point out the obvious and damn if it still hasn't happened. Then I read this retarded little analysis and thought "Goddamn, none of the mooks are going to say it". So, allow me.

The Democratic Primary effectively sucked the life out of the majority Republican Party in Texas.

There's a theory floating out there that somehow the non-partisan ParentPAC has lost it's strength. Here's the brill primary analysis...

To make it even worse, best estimates put Parent PAC’s arch nemesis, pro-voucher supporter James Leininger, at 4-2 this primary cycle. And three of his four victories came against Parent PAC backed candidates.

Here’s a closer look at Parent PAC’s primary cycle. In races where they put in 10,000 dollars or more, they managed a mere 2 - 5 record. In their marque race of the season, Parent PAC again targeted a top Craddick Lieutenant in Phil King, but this time they poured over 60,000 dollars into a poor showing with Joe Tison, who got rolled-up by 31 points. Jim Shepherd took 5,000 of their dollars and front-runner status into his quest to not make his run-off to replace Fred Hill. Likewise, Bob Leonard took 7,500 of their dollars only to get trounced by Mark Shelton. But I’m sure that was one they didn’t mind losing, this way Parent PAC is saved the awkward moment of having to chose in the general between Leonard and Democrat Dan Barrett, who they’ve donated to in the past.

The El Paso duo of Moreno and Haggerty took a combined 16,000 Parent PAC dollars and flushed it down the toilet. All in all, in the ten races Parent PAC lost, totaling over 131,000 of their dollars, 6 were by ten points or more. But it’s not all bad news. It only took the badly bruised PAC just 161,000 dollars to squeeze out a 17 vote victory over Nathan Macias.

First, there is a really good reason why some of these races were lost. Democrats pulled people out of the Republican primary all over Texas for the first time in decades. That's the only way Haggerty loses and it's not like that will be a CradDICK win. Moody's going to take that seat with ease in November. As for King, shit... I think even he sees Sean Penn when he looks in a mirror. Even if he survives November, he'll be bloodied, beaten down and shrunken under the weight of knowing that it's going to happen all over again in less than 2 years. I don't think those narrow shoulders can bear that kind of load.

Of course, going into the primary, I like many thought it would be business as usual. But I'm a dumbass blogger. Some of these people are well paid political analysts who should have been able to see in the numbers the trouble ahead. My problem was in thinking this was only a slightly larger Pres primary with a 'slightly larger' universe of voters. I certainly never anticipated it would suck the life out of the Republican party and nothing I saw that night made me think differently. I mean, I live in Travis County. I'm used to dramatically outnumbering the Republicans at precinct conventions. What surprised me was that Democrats were doing it all over the state. And those numbers flipping over weakened the chances that challengers and good incumbents in the R primary had against CradDICK and Leininger opponents.

Just like Grusendork in 2006, King would have gone down this year in the primary from crossover support. So, in large part for no real reason, Leininger looks like he's got his teeth back. But looks can be deceiving. He's still the same neutered dipshit he was just after the 2006 primaries. However, no one will see it until November.

Many people are going to be surprised by how many races Democratic candidates win around the state with seemingly little support. It's because overnight March 4th, the Texas Democratic Party became THE 800 pound gorilla in the room.

Posted by mcblogger at April 3, 2008 09:10 AM

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