December 29, 2007

Obama, Lameness and Voter Turnout

Last night I had an interesting conversation with a guy who is an ardent supporter of Obama. He was the most persuasive Obama supporter I've ever encountered and I made a comment to the effect that he should be on Obama's payroll.

I was not, however, persuaded. In fact, I came away more convinced that ever that Obama is precisely what the Democratic Party and the US don't need.

Support for Obama hinges on whether you accept the premise that there are voters 'turned off' by hyperpartisan politics and clear choices. The idea that Americans want to vote for the nice guy. Sure, some people might want to vote for the nice guy, but usually the other (the mean son of bitch) makes the nice guy look so bad that he ends up winning. This is why I think Hillary and Edwards can take the White House and why Obama will, like Kerry in 2004, come up short.

Basically, people WANT clear choices and the Republican electoral success since 1980 has depended on making the differences clear and turning it into a life and death decision for American voters. It's worked well. The bottom line, for all of you running polls, is that your samples are wrong for the same reason they are wrong when talking about charitable giving. People always like to say they give to charity, but they usually don't. They also say they want things nicer and less coarse in terms of politics. They are lying through their goddamn teeth.

EOW has more detail on turnout since partisan sniping reached a new level. It's up, not down, since partisan media began to be appear. The reality, no matter what you may see anecdotally, is that Americans want to see candidates clash. They want clear, delineated choices and elegant messaging. And just at the point where Americans are finally starting to see it from Edwards and, to a limited extent, Hillary, Obama pops up. The perfect Democratic Primary candidate who won't be able to win the general. Why? The same reason he'll do well in the primary... he's LAME.

Posted by mcblogger at December 29, 2007 01:19 PM

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