November 17, 2007

Speaking of polls

New numbers for Texas are in and they make for some interesting reading over on BOR. The Clinton juggernaut continues its relentless progress, with Hillary for the first time winning the support of over half---51%---of voters with a history of participating in the Democratic primary. The Barack boomlet seems to be history, with Obama trailing badly at 17 percent. And John Edwards' eleven percent just barely lets him hang on to third place, beating Bill Richardson by less than the margin of error.

One of the fascinating things about this is that Edwards, in spite of his slide toward the political event horizon is the preferred candidate of many state Democratic activists as well of much of the self-styled progressive blogosphere. How is it that our community of "opinion leaders" is so out of touch with our actual base? A couple of explanations come up frequently. "People really aren't paying attention, they're still undecided," and "The average person really isn't very well-informed." Well, since March the Undecideds have shrunk from twenty percent to eight today, so it sure looks like someone has been paying attention and making decisions. Most of those choices have accrued to Hillary's column. And the votes of the Great Uninformed count just as much as those of the smugocracy with all their superior knowledge.

Of course, it's still November. No real votes have been cast, and the public's perception may change once there are some real results to digest. But for the moment, if the Anybody But Hillary crowd is serious about stopping Clinton, maybe they should look around for a more credible candidate.

Anyone know what Gene Kelly is up to these days?

Posted by mayor mcsleaze at November 17, 2007 02:08 PM

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Comments

Personally, I think it's the perception that she's going to be really mean to the R's and people are hungry for some bloodsport.

My thinking? We have an easier general election with Edwards than we do with Hillary and her baggage (earned and unearned).

But keep in mind, I'm just one guy. At this point, if things we decided today, Hillary would win handily. However, as you point out, there's a long way to go.

Posted by: mcblogger [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 17, 2007 04:30 PM

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