April 28, 2006
Another poll - also has Bell sucking wind
Harvey Kronberg in Quorum Report has the results of another governor matchup poll:
The poll's jucier stuff is subscribers-only, but the essence is that...POLLING SUGGESTS HOW VOTERS BREAK WITH INDEPENDENT CANDIDATES ON BALLOT
Reliance on base voters may be overly optimisticQR recently had an opportunity to eyeball a poll by Jeff Smith of Opinion Analysts testing 600 registered voters in the gubernatorial race. The respondents were screened for race, gender, age, and party affiliation. The poll was paid for by Texans for Insurance Reform PAC.
On a simple very favorable-favorable/very unfavorable-unfavorable match up, the Governor hits 48.7%/31.6%. Congressman Chris Bell is 16.4%/8.7%. Bell's biggest problem is that 54.5% have not yet heard of him.
the only governor candidate Bell might beat is Friedman, in a four-way. The poll didn't test a three-way in which Strayhorn doesn't make the ballot at all, and I haven't heard anybody suggesting that she won't be on it, so I guess they figgered it's a waste of time to poll such a scenario.
I suppose Kronberg draws his subhead from the poll's indication that Bell's true "hard" vote - at least now - is only about a third of what most pundits say the Democratic base ought to be in Texas...and Strayhorn and Friedman both peel votes away from Brer Bell if they are on the ballot.
One potential flaw in testing registered voters is the prospect - I think it's pretty damn thin - that Friedman will bring people to the polls who haven't registered before. Oh yeah. Power to the slackers, dewd.
Posted by Aerialist at April 28, 2006 12:15 AM
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