McBlogger

July 28, 2010

Glenn Beck's Goldline scam

Infographic by The Big Picture

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Medical Breakthroughs!

There is hope for the English and, apparently, for those who'd like to never quit smoking. Or sitting in a tanning bed.

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July 26, 2010

No, no... your stupid project is DEAD

There are few things that amuse me quite as much as a completely delusional developer. Apparently, that's exactly who is developing 1155 Barton Springs. The project recently filed for bankruptcy which was, frankly, inevitable given the following description of the property location and pricing...

...4-story, 27 unit development on Barton Springs just east of Lamar adjacent to the train tracks, McDonalds, and Peter Pan Mini Golf. With pricing starting at $1,000,000, our original reaction was that "the project is a very odd combination of location and pricing that suggests a lack of experience in residential development."

The bolded section is, honestly, first rate comedy and completely spot on (I'd seriously like to offer my compliments to the author of the line for their brilliant subtlety). Yes, STARTING at $1,000,000. This project was as sure a sign of a top as that idiotic project at the corner of Riverside and the 35 frontage that was being priced starting at $750k. What kind of fucking waste of goddamn skin moron builds a project full of (asking price) $1m - $6m condo next to a fucking McDonalds? Apparently, one that's completely fuckall insanse...

Despite the setback, PPT Development LP principal Steffen Waltz said the $40 million development called 1155 Barton Springs is merely in hibernation, not dead."

Not for nothing, Steffen, but you're not going to get anyone to finance you. Period. You might as well have filed for dissolution because I don't think anyone's going to give you DIP to work through the 11, even with the super senior claim. So, you're toast. Don't feel bad, this is probably your first project and you can chalk it up to a learning experience. Granted, you could have found a cheaper way to gain knowledge, but at least now you know... don't buy at the fucking top. One other thing... your dream of those obnoxious sales prices ain't gonna happen. If you want to salvage, see below and restructure for more affordable units.

For all you other budding developers, make nice with a REALLY good LO (not some dipshit at one of the retail banks) and LISTEN to what they have to say. They know far more than you think and can be especially helpful to those of you involved in conversion projects that fucked up the FHA approval. And, for the love of all that's holy, don't develop an attitude or use the phrase 'I've never been through a transaction like this'. That just makes me want to put my foot up your stupid ass (and those of you who know me know that's what I'll do)... or decline the transaction and leave you to the tender mercies of BAC or WFC. And finally, ASK someone for advice BEFORE you decide to write a proposal based (not to mention, before you actually break ground) on sales of residential units in a non-warrantable property.

In other news from AustinTowers, there appears to be some positive news regarding condo sales downtown. The May YoY results show an increase in sales volume from 11 units in May 09 to 24 units in May 10. The average sales price was around $259k and the average days on market was 118, skewed in part by two units with a greater than one year time on the market. This is interesting because it tells us a couple of things...

1) The weak hands have shaken out. The only owners left are those holding on like grim death... they'll never let them go for a price they don't like and they have bloated credit cards and depleted investment accounts to prove they have the stones to stay in the game.
2) The average sales price indicates that the sweet spot in the downtown market is under $300k, significantly below the average in 2007-08 and very clearly shows the effects of new underwriting criteria.
3) The lower price point and the stability of it indicates long term buyers and a washout (finally) of the speculators.
4) This doesn't bode well for luxury developers, but it looks EXTRAORDINARILY strong for developers looking to bring in more affordable units. 2-3/1-2 units coming in under $300k will sell very fast and very close to ask.

With this data, I think I'm ready to call a bottom in the downtown market. While it will be a few more months before the MI companies pick up on it, it seems pretty clear that downtown has stabilized and is no longer in decline. Now, that should continue as long as it remains difficult for asshats who want to build projects near fast food restaurants to obtain construction financing.

Posted by mcblogger at 09:43 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

July 23, 2010

Whiney McWhinerson

Looks like the information we got last week about Sleazy Staples trying to recast for the role of a lifetime, that of Whiney McWhinerson, was spot on.

The DMN did this piece about how nasty the race for Ag Commissioner has become. Staples, through his minions since he's too much of a chickenshit to talk to a reporter, apparently thinks this is all just really too mean...

"I've been dong this for almost 30 years, and I've never seen a campaign as libelous and slanderous," said Bryan Eppstein, Staples' campaign consultant.

Really, Bryan? You sure you want to go there? After all, Staples, BEFORE THE PRIMARY ELECTION (it was in February in Tyler, wasn't it Bryan?), was shoveling dirt on Hank. What Staples didn't anticipate was that Hank's a man and owns his past, mistakes and all. Including one bad check from 10 years ago. BTW, Bryan, HALF THE STATE HAS A BOUNCED CHECK AT SOME POINT IN THE PAST YEARS. Mistakes like that are THE reason banks offer overdraft protection. So, not for nothing, but are you sure you want to piss up the leg of half the electorate?

Staples has also been upset about Hank's pointing out that he spent campaign funds on a personal vehicle, which all available evidence points to. Staples says there was a campaign car and the one he bought for himself which he currently drives. So far, we only have proof of the campaign car. If there isn't documentation on a second car, why is Staples lying about it? And why spend so much time talking about how you've been personally maligned when, so far, no one has mentioned your giant freak head, effeminate manner or, in general, goofiness? The public isn't going to feel sorry for Staples, he's just not a sympathetic character.

If anything, I'm kinda disappointed Hank isn't getting personal with Staples.

Hank, instead, has yet to say anything about Staples personal life or even his past business dealings. Yet Staples is squealing about every traffic ticket Hank's received. Hank is sticking, perfectly, to limiting his criticism to Staples professionally, all of which is valid even if Sleazy Staples might be a little peeved about being taken to task for his failure. All Staples has done is run from his responsibilities as Commissioner, and throw others under the bus. Like an inspector (and TDH) in the case of the Plainview peanut disaster.

So that was early in the week... then there was ANOTHER very well researched piece on Connected Nation, Sleazy Staples effort to give the telecom industry a handjob with taxpayer money. Here's the money shot...

"It's a scandal, a total scandal," said Art Brodsky, communications director of Public Knowledge, a public interest group that follows digital culture. A longtime critic of Connected Nation, Brodsky has tracked the nonprofit since Kentucky officials accused it of overestimating broadband availability several years ago. The agency that grew into Connection Nation started there in 2001.
Brodsky said nondisclosure agreements make it difficult to see who really benefits from the mapping process.

PD has more here.

The truly ironic thing about Staples and his blistering incompetence is that he's, accidentally, stumbled upon the plan of national Republicans to make it appear that government simply can't function. The only problem, for Staples, is that government can't really function because he's too much of a mook to make it work. There are some amazing people at TDA who are competent and capable. Staples, clearly, is the one holding them back and making us less safe on a daily basis.

Think about that the next time you bite into a burger.

Posted by mcblogger at 10:04 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

July 21, 2010

Judd Gregg and the triumpth of the stupid

Yes, there's hope for stupid people... they can rise up to run for and win election to the US Senate. Just look at Judd Gregg. As proof of his stupidity, I'd like to offer his 'rhetorical' question to Fed Chair Bernanke regarding why businesses aren't hiring. He thinks it's all because of some vague uncertainty out of DC coupled with a lack of tax incentives.

Why's that stupid? BECAUSE NO BUSINESS IS GOING TO HIRE PEOPLE UNLESS THEY WILL BE ABLE TO CREATE ADDITIONAL PROFIT BY SELLING MORE. No mystery... Look at it this way...

I run a company that makes plastic bears. I sell 100 of them per year at $1 per piece. I have four employees who cost me (remember, these aren't real numbers, this is a simplified example to illustrate the point) $10 per year, each. My other overhead is about $40 which gives me a gross profit of $20 per year. My company, because of the ridiculous US corporate tax laws, pays only 25% on that which means I pay $5 per year in taxes making my net profit $15 (nevermind that most corporations pay way less than that, on a percentage basis, in taxes than individuals). I'm happy even though the economy is in the toilet.

Now, along comes Judd Gregg who says if I hire one more worker, he'll cut my taxes by 50%. Woo Hoo, right? If you think so, let me know where you are so I can beat you in the head, moron. Here's the math...

My cost went up by $10 per year (a new employee) which knocked by gross profit down to $10 because the economy still sucks and I can't sell an additional plastic bear because there's only demand for 100. I'm now taxed at only 12.5% (yay, me!) so I only pay $1.25 in taxes. However, my net profit is only $8.75, damn near half of what it was previously before Judd Gregg cut me that amazing deal.

Get it now? No one is going to hire people because of a damn tax credit. The only way they'll hire is if there is demand for their products. And the Government is all that's left to stimulate demand in this economic environment. We need it to build roads, jails, schools, courthouses, etc. We need infrastructure improvements. That'll create enough jobs to stimulate aggregate demand.

If only the Republicans would get the ideology out of their brains and start acknowledging economic reality.

Posted by mcblogger at 03:06 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)

July 20, 2010

Now that's pretty offensive!

A group of prominent Hispanic Republicans (yes, Virginia, they do exist!) is starting a PAC not to try to change the GOP's stance on hatin' tha messikins (and blaming them for every one of society's ills, even though we all know all bad stuff in the world was caused by the homos. And all those drunken micks in Boston), but instead just to fund more Hispanic candidates who'll lose in their party's primary. Like this guy.

Of course, it's not at all offensive to start a PAC. What IS offensive is that George P. Bush (think Jeb, not W) is taking a leadership role and it's this piece that will doom it completely. History is done with the Bush family and so is the United States. From questionable Prescott to W, we don't need any more Bush's in public service. Yes, that includes fat Jebbie, the 'smart one'.

Sorry, George P., but you'd be better off using your mother's maiden name. And running as a Democrat.

Posted by mcblogger at 08:50 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)